The Crypto Purchase Decision Kit
A repeatable process for deciding whether to buy — and how much.
Most bad crypto purchases are not caused by bad analysis. They are caused by no analysis — a decision made in twenty minutes, on a phone, because something was moving and the feeling of missing it was worse than the feeling of losing money. The purpose of a written process is not that it makes you right. It is that it makes you slow, and slow is most of the benefit.
This kit is three levels of research, each with a defined stopping point, so you can spend ten minutes on something that deserves ten minutes and an hour on something that deserves an hour. The honest thing to say up front is that none of it tells you whether a price will go up. Nothing does. What a process can do is tell you whether you understand what you are buying, whether the thing is what it says it is, and whether the amount you are about to commit is an amount you can be wrong about.
Print it, or work through it on screen. The one part worth not skipping is writing the thesis down in your own words — most projects that survive a Quick Screen fail the moment you try to explain them in a sentence.
The three levels
Match the depth to the size of the decision. A position you could shrug off does not need three hours; a position that would hurt does not deserve ten minutes.
- Quick Screen — 5 to 10 minutes. Pass or fail. Most things fail here, and that is the point.
- Light Research — 45 to 60 minutes. Only for what passed. Fill in the brief and the scorecard.
- Deep Dive — 2 to 3 hours, optional. Only if it passed Light Research and the size justifies the time.
Quick Screen — ten-minute pass/fail
Every box needs a yes. A single no is a fail, and a fail means stop — not "look for a reason it is fine".
- I can describe what this project does in one sentence, without using its own marketing words.
- Official sources exist: a website, real documentation, and an announcement channel with recent activity.
- The team is identifiable, or has reputable backers, or there is a clear and stated reason it is anonymous.
- The token has an actual role — it is needed for something, not just sold.
- Supply is public: total, maximum, how new units are issued, and what is still locked up.
- There is a security signal: a reputable audit, or open source code that people other than the team have read.
- It trades somewhere identifiable, with volume and a spread that are not absurd.
- None of the red flags below are present.
Checking the supply figures is worth more than it looks. A project can be entirely honest and still be a bad purchase because most of the tokens unlock into the market over the next year.
Red flags — stop, or wait
These are not "proceed with caution" signals. Each one on its own is enough to end the process.
- Guaranteed returns, fixed yields, or any phrasing built around the words risk-free.
- Unclear supply or vesting — especially heavy insider unlocks inside the next three months.
- Anonymous team, no audit, no public code, and aggressive marketing. Any one of those is survivable; all four together is a pattern.
- Repeated missed roadmap dates and a story that changes to match whatever is popular.
- Very thin liquidity or a huge spread — you can get in, but the exit is the part that matters.
- You have read about it for an hour and still cannot explain it simply.
- It reached you rather than you finding it: a message, a video description, a comment reply, an advert.
That last one is the single most reliable signal in this document. If you would like to see what a thin exit actually costs before you commit, the Sellability tool will quote the real cost of leaving a position at several sizes.
Light Research — the hour that matters
- Write a one-sentence thesis: "I believe ____ because ____." If you cannot finish that sentence, stop here.
- Read the documentation and the FAQ. What problem, for whom, and why would it be solved now rather than five years ago?
- Token economics: total and maximum supply, issuance schedule, unlock dates, and how concentrated the holdings are.
- Traction over the last three to six months — users, partners, code commits, whether the community discusses the product or only the price.
- Security history: audits, bug bounties, past incidents, and how old the contract and the chain actually are.
- Liquidity and custody: where you would buy it, what the spread costs you, and specifically how you would hold it afterwards.
- Fit and size: does this match the purpose and horizon you already wrote down, and does it sit inside your crypto boundary?
- Exit rules, written before you buy: time-based, thesis-based, or risk-based. Decide now, while nothing is at stake.
One-page research brief
Fill this in as you go. The value is in having written it — a thesis you cannot reconstruct in six months was never a thesis.
Sizing — the part that decides whether a mistake matters
Position sizing does more for an outcome than asset selection does, and it is the only variable here you fully control. Set the boundary before you look at the asset, not after you have talked yourself into it.
Splitting a purchase across a schedule does not improve the odds that the asset is good. It removes the question of whether today happened to be a good day to buy, which is a question nobody can answer anyway.
Go / no-go
All six, or it is a no. A no is allowed to be permanent, and it is also allowed to be "not yet".
- Thesis written in my own words, one or two sentences.
- Fits the purpose, horizon and crypto boundary I set before I started.
- Position size pre-set and small; the purchase schedule is written down.
- Custody plan ready — I know exactly where this will be held.
- Exit and re-evaluation rules written; no exit decided by feeling.
- Logged in the brief above, dated.
After you buy — the monitor plan
- A five-minute review once a week. Not once a day, and not intraday.
- Note unlock dates and known catalysts in a calendar, so they are never a surprise.
- Revisit the thesis quarterly — has anything I wrote down actually changed?
- Adjust position size only through the rules above, never in response to a price move.
This kit is educational and is not financial advice. It structures a decision; it does not make one, and no part of it is a recommendation to buy anything. See the full disclaimer.
Coins mentioned
Where to go next
Educational content, not financial advice. This worksheet structures a decision; it does not make one, and nothing in it is a recommendation to buy anything. We are not a broker, exchange, custodian or adviser, and we never take custody of your assets. We will never ask for a seed phrase or private key. See the full disclaimer.