Bitcoin · halving
The next Bitcoin halving
At block 1,050,000 the block reward is cut in half, and the rate of new BTC entering the world permanently halves with it.
That is a range, not a date. Blocks are arriving every 9.8 minutes against a 10-minute target, and those two assumptions sit 9 days apart. We show both ends rather than pick one and call it a countdown.
20,081,669 of 21,000,000 BTC, counted as the exact sum of every block subsidy the schedule has paid. That is what has been minted, not what is in circulation — the genesis reward is unspendable and some early blocks claimed less than they were owed.
What changes at block 1,050,000
Protocol arithmetic at the 10.0-minute block target — 144 blocks a day. The chain is actually producing about 146 a day at the moment; difficulty retargeting pulls that back toward the target, which is why the long-run figure is the one used here.
What it actually does to sell pressure
New supply is arriving at 450 BTC a day — $35.4M at today's price. Against $37.13B of daily trading volume, that is 0.095% of the market.
After the halving it becomes $17.7M a day, or 0.048% — so the event removes about 0.048% of daily volume worth of structural selling.
That is a deliberately unexciting number, and it is the honest one. The halving is a supply event of a size the market absorbs in minutes, not a mechanism that moves price on its own. Price and volume are today's readings; the coin figures above are protocol constants.
Every halving so far
- 28 November 2012 25 block 210,000
- 9 July 2016 12.5 block 420,000
- 11 May 2020 6.25 block 630,000
- 20 April 2024 3.125 block 840,000
- Next — 4 April – 13 April 2028 1.5625 block 1,050,000
Every date here comes from the block itself, not from a calendar. Bitcoin's block 840,000 was mined at 00:09 UTC on 20 April 2024, which is why the widely repeated "19 April" is a day out. We do not show what the price was at each halving: the exchanges holding that history mostly forbid republishing it, and we would rather leave the gap than borrow a number we have no right to.
What we will not tell you
We publish no forecast of what this does to the price, and we are not being coy — we think nobody can.
There have been four Bitcoin halvings. Four is not a sample. Each one landed in a different world: 2012 had almost no institutional participation, 2016 followed a two-year bear market, 2020 arrived weeks after a global liquidity shock, 2024 came months after spot ETFs changed who was buying. Anyone drawing a causal line through those four points is selling something.
What we can tell you is the arithmetic above: how much new supply exists, what it is worth, and how small it is next to the volume that trades every day. That is a fact you can check. The rest is a story.
Tell me when it is close
One email when Bitcoin is 1,008 blocks from halving — about a week out. Nothing else, and never to anyone else.
Height 966,133 as of 01:30 UTC, confirmed by mempool.space and blockstream.info.